AFC North, NFC South winners will make early exits, plus game balls and biggest gaffes

The NFL is looking down the barrel of a chaotic Week 18. Playoff positioning is going to be the central storyline as both No. 1 seeds are still up for grabs in each conference, while various division races are also slated to come to a head. Specifically, the AFC North and (potentially) the NFC South are looking at do-or-die matchups in the regular season finale. 

After the Browns upset Pittsburgh on Sunday and Baltimore thumped the Packers on Saturday, the AFC North will be determined next week when the Ravens visit the Steelers. The winner will head into the postseason as AFC North champs and the No. 4 seed in the conference, while the other will be sent packing. In the NFC South, it’s a similar circumstance after Carolina fell to the Seahawks and the Dolphins beat the Buccaneers, which may set up a win-or-go-home matchup for the division title as well. 

The only wrinkle in that game depends on what the Atlanta Falcons (who are already eliminated from the playoffs) do over their next two games. If Atlanta wins out (vs. Rams on Monday and vs. Saints in Week 18), that would also clinch the division for the Panthers, no matter if they lose the head-to-head to the Bucs next week. In that scenario, all three of those clubs would be 8-9 on the year, and Carolina would win that three-team tiebreaker due to a superior head-to-head record. 

Given the stakes, these two matchups will likely be some of the more hyped games during the final week of the regular season. But will they really matter in the grand scheme of things? 

Sure, winning the division is a tremendous accomplishment and is the first step that every organization wants to make en route to winning a Lombardi Trophy. When I look at these four teams — Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Tampa Bay — I don’t see teams beginning a march to Santa Clara for Super Bowl LX. Instead, I see sacrificial lambs ripe to be upset during Wild Card Weekend. 

Even with the home-field advantage that two of these teams will receive after locking up their divisions next week, there’s a very real possibility neither will be favored in their respective playoff matchup. 

Both are locked into the No. 4 seeds in the conference, meaning they’ll face the top wild-card entry. 

NFL Week 17 overreactions: Packers defense their playoff demise? Steelers let AFC North slip away?

Tyler Sullivan

For Pittsburgh or Baltimore, that currently means they’re slated to host the Texans on Wild Card Weekend. 

Houston is 11-2 in its past 13 games after starting the year 0-3, and boasts arguably the best defense in the NFL. Coming into Week 17, the Texans defense led the league in points per game allowed (16.6) and yards per game allowed (272.3). The Ravens know firsthand how lethal Houston can be, as they were on the receiving end of a 44-10 blowout in Baltimore in Week 5. If it’s not the Texans, they’re either looking at hosting Justin Herbert and the Chargers or Josh Allen and the Bills. Neither of those matchups are walks in the park either. 

As for Carolina and Tampa Bay, they are going to play one of the three juggernauts in the NFC West: the 49ers, Seahawks, or Rams. The Panthers have already lost to the Niners and Seahawks earlier this season. While they were able to upset the Rams at home back in Week 13, it’s hard to imagine Matthew Stafford having another three-turnover game as he did in that contest. 

Meanwhile, the Bucs actually defeated both the Seahawks and 49ers earlier this season, but Tampa Bay has devolved into a wildly different team since then. Over his last 10 starts, Baker Mayfield is 2-8, and his interceptions have gone up tremendously (9) after throwing just one in his first six games of the year. When Mayfield throws a pick, the Bucs are 0-8 this season. 

So, while there will be pomp and circumstance for whichever teams win the AFC North and NFC South next week, that high will in all likelihood be short-lived, as they’ll be ripe for the picking in the opening round of the postseason. 

Game balls

• Week 17 stats: 19 of 21 passing, 256 yards passing, 5 TDs; 3 carries, 22 yards rushing

Drake Maye continued his MVP push on Sunday with a sensational effort against the Jets. He became the first quarterback ever to complete at least 90% of his passes, throw for 250-plus yards, and have five or more passing touchdowns in a game. Maye did that while only playing about two and a half quarters, after being pulled with roughly five minutes to play in the third quarter. Maye also became just the third player in Patriots history to have a 4,000-yard passing season, joining Tom Brady and Drew Bledsoe. 

• Week 17 stats: 22 carries, 101 yards rushing, 2 TDs; 3 catches, 40 yards receiving

Chase Brown is out here willing fantasy managers to championships! The Bengals running back continues to have a nose for the end zone, scoring twice during Cincinnati’s blowout win over the Cardinals. This was Brown’s second career game with two rushing scores. 

• Week 17 stats: 22 of 27 passing, 333 yards passing, 2 TDs

Tyler Shough has played well enough that I don’t think the Saints should look to draft a quarterback this offseason, and Sunday’s come-from-behind win over the Titans was the latest example of why. He helped erase a double-digit halftime deficit and outscore Tennessee 24-6 over the final two quarters. Shough’s 333 yards passing are the most by a Saints rookie in a game in team history, and his five career wins are also the most by a rookie in franchise history.

• Week 17 stats: 18 carries, 110 yards rushing, 2 TDs; 2 catches, 12 yards receiving

Charbonnet was the key cog as Seattle broke away from the Panthers in the second half of their 27-10 win, which helped keep them on pace to secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The back rushed for two touchdowns in the second half, which gave him 11 scores on the season. Charbonnet is now the first Seahawks player with 10 rushing touchdowns in a season since Marshawn Lynch in 2014. 

• Week 17 stats: 36 carries, 216 yards rushing, 4 TDs

With Lamar Jackson sidelined due to injury for this game, Derrick Henry put the Ravens on this back. The veteran back helped keep Baltimore’s playoff hopes alive with a historic effort in the win over Green Bay. This was Henry’s seventh 200-yard rushing game, which passed O.J. Simpson and Adrian Peterson for the most in NFL history. He also joined Jim Brown as the only players in NFL history to have multiple games with at least 200 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns. 

• Week 17 stats: 5 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries

Van Ginkel was one of the key contributors during what was a dominating day defensively for the Vikings in their Christmas Day victory over the Lions. He had a knack for picking up turnovers, recovering two Detroit fumbles on the afternoon. Van Ginkel’s first recovery helped lead to a scoring drive by the offense to build up an early 7-0 lead. 

• Week 17 stats: 24 of 33 passing, 303 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT; 6 carries, 28 yards rushing, 2 TDs

Purdy’s start to Week 17 couldn’t have gone worse. His first throw of the night was picked off and returned 34 yards for a touchdown to put the 49ers in a quick 7-0 hole. However, the San Francisco QB bounced back in a big way, totaling five touchdowns in the win over Chicago. Over this six-game winning streak by the Niners, Purdy is second in the NFL in total touchdowns and first in passer rating. Now, he’ll look to secure the No. 1 seed next week with a win over Seattle. 

Notable Week 17 gaffes

Cam Ward has football ripped from his hands, returned for TD

While we spotlighted Tyler Shough above, the initial catalyst for New Orleans’ comeback was Chase Young. He got after Titans rookie Cam Ward and not only took him down for the sack, but snatched the football out of his hands in the process. Young then took the turnover 33 yards to the house for a touchdown. 

Jaguars trick play results in a fumble

Jacksonville ultimately prevailed to move to 12-4 with a win over the Colts, but this play was one of their lowlights on the afternoon. On the first possession of the day for the offense, Trevor Lawrence threw a pass to Jakobi Meyers from the Indianapolis 17-yard line. The veteran receiver hauled in the ball and proceeded to lateral it to Travis Etienne, but the exchange resulted in a fumble and eliminated the scoring opportunity. 

Panthers taketh, Panthers giveth

For a minute, it looked like Carolina was going to swing the momentum in their favor en route to an upset over the Seahawks. After being knotted at 3 apiece at halftime, corner Mike Jackson picked off Sam Darnold in the end zone to eliminate a Seattle scoring opportunity to take the lead and gave his offense the ball back at their 20-yard line. 

However, on the very next play following the turnover, the Panthers offense gave it right back to Seattle as Chuba Hubbard had the ball jarred free. 

Initially, it looked like DeMarcus Lawrence scooped up the loose ball and returned it for a touchdown, but officials deemed he was down by contact upon review. No matter, as the Seahawks then marched six plays before getting into the end zone to break the tie and go on a 24-7 run in the second half. 

Jared Goff’s turnover-filled Christmas

Jared Goff likely didn’t feel merry over the Christmas holiday, especially as he faced a Vikings defense that did more than just nip at his nose. The Lions quarterback saw his team officially eliminated from playoff contention after totaling five turnovers (2 INTs and 3 fumbles) in the loss to Minnesota. In all, the Lions turned the ball over six times. Those giveaways nearly matched what the Lions had produced for the entire season leading up to Week 17 (eight). 

Josh Allen misses an open Khalil Shakir on 2-point attempt

The Bills nearly pulled off a remarkable comeback over the Eagles after Josh Allen rushed for a touchdown with less than 20 seconds left in regulation to put Buffalo just a point behind Philadelphia. Instead of opting for the extra point to tie the game, Sean McDermott left his offense on the field to go for the win right then and there. Buffalo had drawn up a heck of a play call as wideout Khalil Shakir was open in the back left corner of the end zone. However, Josh Allen didn’t get his feet perfectly set and was just out in front of Shakir, rendering the two-point attempt no good. 

This loss sank Buffalo to the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff picture and clinched the AFC East title for the New England Patriots.  

Two-minute drills

Here are some of my quick-hitting takeaways/notes from Week 17: 

• Green Bay’s defense post-Micah Parsons injury has me concerned about their prospects of going deep into the playoffs. The Ravens were a one-dimensional offense on Saturday night and, while Derrick Henry is an all-time talent, allowing 41 points is alarming. Those concerns on defense are only heightened when factoring in that they’ll be on the road after losing the NFC North title. Away from Lambeau Field, the Packers are giving up 25.1 points per game this season compared to 17.9 points per game at home. 
• Maybe the biggest loss in the entire NFL from 2024 to 2025 was Ben Johnson leaving the Lions offense. Detroit, which was officially eliminated from the playoffs on Christmas, never found its footing in the post-Johnson era. 
• While Minnesota’s dominating day defensively was the central storyline in the win over the Lions, let’s not overlook Kevin O’Connell somehow squeezing 23 points out of a Max Brosmer-led offense that generated just 51 yards passing. 
• I still can’t quite figure out the Eagles. On one hand, they have a stellar defense and do make plays on offense, even if it’s unappealing to the eye. On the other hand, however, being shutout in the second half on Sunday vs. Buffalo and generating 16 total yards has me seriously wondering if they have another deep run in them. 
• If the Giants needed a quarterback, I’d understand the frustration in defeating the Raiders on Sunday and losing the inside track at the No. 1 overall pick at the 2026 NFL Draft. However, they have Jaxson Dart, and building a good foundation around him is important, which includes not tanking. New York will still get a high pick, and not quitting in this spot will help them in the long run. 
• The Raiders inched one step closer to No. 1 overall pick, but may have lost Maxx Crosby in the process. 
• He’s on the outer rim of the Coach of the Year conversation at the moment, but the job Liam Coen has done in Jacksonville is superb. The Jaguars have reached 12 wins for the first time since 2005. 
• Speaking of the Coach of the Year race, I can’t see how Kyle Shanahan doesn’t win if the Niners win in Week 18 to secure the No. 1 seed and the NFC West. In a year littered with injuries, San Francisco somehow persevered.
• After failing to record a sack on Sunday, Myles Garrett will enter Week 18 just a half-sack shy of tying the NFL record.
• Quinn Ewers looked solid today in the win over Tampa Bay. The former Texas Longhorn became the first Dolphins rookie with two or more passing touchdowns in the first half of a game since Dan Marino. 
• After watching the Bengals offense explode over the last two weeks, they’ve become the biggest „What if?“ situation in my eyes this season. 
• Trey McBride’s 119 receptions this season are the most by a tight end in NFL history. 
• The Broncos and Patriots owe the Texans and Eagles a belated Christmas gift after their wins helped secure the AFC West and AFC East titles, respectively.