Sport

Agent’s Take: George Pickens, Breece Hall lead contract-year breakout players

Zack Baun signed a one-year, $3.5 million deal worth a maximum of $4.5 million through incentives with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2024 free agency after spending the first four years of his NFL career as a reserve edge-rushing outside linebacker and special-teams standout on the New Orleans Saints. He was one of the NFL’s biggest surprises last season, making a smooth transition to inside linebacker.

In addition to tying for sixth in the NFL with 151 tackles, Baun excelled in coverage. His five forced fumbles were the NFL’s second-most. He is the only player to ever have at least 150 tackles and five or more forced fumbles in an NFL season.

Baun was named to the Pro Bowl and earned first-team All-Pro honors, both for the first time in his career. He was also a finalist for the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year award.

Baun was a signing priority after the Eagles won Super Bowl LIX. The Eagles, who have historically let off-ball linebackers walk in free agency, retained Baun by giving him a three-year, $51 million deal with $34 million fully guaranteed. At $17 million per year, Baun became the NFL’s fourth-highest-paid off-ball linebacker.

As Baun can attest, fortunes can be made because of a player’s performance in a contract year. With one more game left in the NFL regular season, here are seven players who have made good use of their contract year. A key contract benchmark from 2025 and the probability of hitting this financial target — ranging from one dollar sign to four dollar signs — are listed for each player.

player headshot

  • Financial benchmark: DK Metcalf — four years, $32,999,882 per year, $80 million guaranteed
  • Probability: $$$

George Pickens had worn out his welcome with the Pittsburgh Steelers because of his attitude and immaturity despite his immense talent. The Steelers trading the equivalent of a second-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks for wide receiver DK Metcalf in March — and giving him a four-year contract extension averaging nearly $33 million per year in the process — spoke volumes about Pittsburgh’s frustrations with Pickens.

The calculated risk the Dallas Cowboys took by trading a 2026 third-round pick and a 2027 fifth-round pick to the Steelers for Pickens and a 2027 sixth-round pick in May has paid big dividends.

Pickens has performed at an All-Pro level this season. He has 92 receptions, 1,420 receiving yards and nine receiving touchdowns, all career highs, while averaging 15.4 yards per catch. The 2022 second-round pick is the only player who ranks in the NFL’s top 10 in each of these categories this season. CeeDee Lamb and Pickens arguably have become the NFL’s best receiving tandem.

The criticism Pickens received for his lack of effort in a Week 14 loss to the Detroit Lions and his reaction to Richard Sherman’s comments were a prime example of why the Steelers were reluctant to give him a new deal. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones doesn’t have the same reservations. Having two high-priced wide receivers isn’t an issue for Jones.

Absent a new deal before early March, Pickens will be designated as a franchise player. The deadline for teams to use a franchise or transition tag is March 3 at 4 p.m. ET.

The 2026 non-exclusive franchise tag for wide receivers projects to 9.016% of the 2026 salary cap. (It was 8.581% in 2025.) If the 2026 salary cap is set at $300 million, a 7.45% increase over 2025’s $279.2 million salary cap, the wide receiver figure should be $27.047 million.

Being patient could work in Pickens’ favor. His best deal could come from letting Nico Collins and Puka Nacua, who will be in contract years in 2026, further define the wide receiver market, provided their respective deals with the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams are done before the July 15 deadline for franchise players to sign long-term.

Agent’s Take: George Pickens’ breakout season with Cowboys puts Jerry Jones on the clock for another mega deal

Joel Corry

Agent's Take: George Pickens' breakout season with Cowboys puts Jerry Jones on the clock for another mega deal

player headshot

  • Financial benchmark: Sam Darnold – three years, $33.5 million per year, $55 million guaranteed, worth up to $115.5 million with incentives
  • Probability: $$

Daniel Jones, who signed a one-year, $14 million deal worth up to $17.7 million in free agency, was having a surprising career resurgence before tearing his right Achilles during a Week 14 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. He was an early-season MVP candidate when the Colts were averaging a league-leading 33.8 points per game and had the league’s best record at 7-1.

The Colts went all in on the 2025 season by acquiring All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner from the New York Jets for a 2026 first-round pick, a 2027 first-round pick and wide receiver Adonai Mitchell at the Nov. 4 midseason trade deadline. The trade was viewed as an endorsement of Jones as the solution to the quarterback instability that has plagued the Colts since Andrew Luck abruptly retired shortly before the start of the 2019 regular season.

Jones’ play began tailing off after the trade, partially because a fracture in his left fibula robbed him of his mobility, which is important to his success. It became a catalyst for a stunning collapse in which the Colts are going to miss the playoffs, most likely with an 8-9 record.

The lack of first-round picks makes it harder for the Colts to go in another direction at quarterback in the NFL Draft. A non-exclusive franchise tag, which should be in the $43 million to $44 million range with the 2026 salary cap set in the $300 million range, would have been a realistic possibility without the Achilles tear.

There may not have been much appetite for going the draft route again after using a top-five pick on Anthony Richardson in 2023, especially since the 2026 quarterback draft class is mediocre at best. Despite the injury, Jones is the best quarterback available in a lackluster group of free agents. General manager Chris Ballard and/or head coach Shane Steichen losing their jobs could change the calculus.

The average salary for 2025 starting quarterbacks, which includes those on rookie contracts strictly determined by draft position under the rookie wage scale, is $30,153,958 per year, according to NFLPA data. The figure rises to $44,067,508 per year when starting quarterbacks on rookie contracts are removed from the equation.

It remains to be seen when Jones will recover. Jones being ready for the start of the 2026 regular season isn’t out of the question.

Agent’s Take: What’s next for the Colts and Daniel Jones after his Achilles injury?

Joel Corry

Agent's Take: What's next for the Colts and Daniel Jones after his Achilles injury?

player headshot

  • Financial benchmark: Trey McBride — four years, $19 million per year, $43 million guaranteed
  • Probability: $

Kyle Pitts was thought to be the future of the tight end position after a Pro Bowl rookie season in 2021 with 68 receptions and 1,026 receiving yards. He hadn’t come close to that type of production again until this season. Pitts has a career-high 82 receptions for 870 yards and five touchdowns. He ranks second among NFL tight ends this season in receptions and receiving yards.

The most recent potentially relevant data point in the tight end marketplace is the three-year, $39.267 million contract extension averaging $13.089 million per year that 30-year-old Mark Andrews received from the Baltimore Ravens at the beginning of December. There’s a five-year age gap between the two. The 25-year-old Pitts has been far more productive than Andrews, who has 46 catches for 408 yards and five touchdowns in 16 games this season.

There has been some speculation that Pitts may have played his way into a franchise tag. That seemed unimaginable during the offseason, when the Falcons were reportedly open to trading Pitts but weren’t aggressively shopping him.

The 2026 non-exclusive franchise tag for tight ends is expected to be 5.01% of the 2026 salary cap. (It was 4.952% this year.) With a $300 million 2026 salary cap, the tight end number should be $15.031 million.

player headshot

  • Financial benchmark: Zack Baun — three years, $17 million per year, $34 million guaranteed
  • Probability: $$

Devin Lloyd seemed intent on proving the Jaguars made a mistake by declining his $14.751 million fifth-year option for 2026. He was named AFC Defensive Player of the Month for September. Lloyd’s momentum was briefly slowed by a Week 6 calf injury, but he hasn’t missed a beat since returning to action after a two-game absence. His five interceptions are tied for the second-most in the NFL this season.

The biggest payday ever for an off-ball linebacker in free agency belongs to Tremaine Edmunds. He received a four-year, $72 million contract averaging $18 million per year, with $50 million in guarantees, including $41.8 million fully guaranteed at signing, from the Bears in 2023. Baun couldn’t eclipse Edmunds’ $18 million per year despite being an NFL Defensive Player of the Year finalist last season.

player headshot

  • Financial benchmark: Kyren Williams — three years, $11 million per year, $23 million guaranteed
  • Probability: $$$

Breece Hall wasn’t a contract extension candidate during the offseason because of first-year Jets head coach Aaron Glenn’s plan to go with a running back-by-committee approach, which was derailed by Braelon Allen’s season-ending knee injury. The 2022 second-round pick has a career-best 1,065 rushing yards this season. It’s the first time a Jets running back has hit the 1,000-yard mark since Chris Ivory in 2015.

Hall will likely be looking to get into the same salary stratosphere as James Cook and Kyren Williams, fellow running backs from the 2022 draft, with a new contract. Williams signed a three-year, $33 million extension with the Rams during the preseason. Cook’s four-year, $46 million extension, worth up to $48 million with salary escalators, from the Buffalo Bills came several days after Williams’ deal.

The Jets are reportedly interested in retaining Hall. Preventing Hall from hitting the open market with a franchise tag won’t be an issue financially. The Jets are expected to have more than $100 million in 2026 salary cap space.

The 2026 non-exclusive franchise tag for running backs projects to 4.723% of the 2026 salary cap. It’s 4.886% in 2025. If the 2026 salary cap is set at $300 million, the running back figure should be $14.171 million. Only three running backs — Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry — have contracts averaging more than the projected tag amount.

player headshot

  • Financial benchmark: Josh Sweat — four years, $19.1 million per year, $41 million guaranteed
  • Probability: $$$

Jaelan Phillips has bounced back from two straight injury-plagued seasons. He played eight games in 2023 before a right Achilles tear ended his season. The 2021 first-round pick tore his right ACL four games into the 2024 season.

The Eagles acquired Phillips from the Miami Dolphins for a 2026 third-round pick ahead of the Nov. 4 trade deadline to help fill a void created by losing edge rusher Josh Sweat to the Arizona Cardinals in free agency. The trade reunited Phillips with Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who served as Phillips’ defensive coordinator with the Dolphins in 2023.

Phillips has thrived under Fangio. His 41 quarterback pressures (combined sacks, quarterback hurries and quarterback hits) are tied for the league’s fourth-most with Myles Garrett, who is expected to win the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award, since Week 10, according to Pro Football Focus.

The Eagles becoming one of the NFL’s best defenses has coincided with Phillips’ arrival in Week 10, as they have allowed a league-low 14.5 points per game with him in the lineup. Philadelphia had 17 sacks in eight games prior to trading for Phillips. In eight games with Phillips, the Eagles have 25 sacks.

Phillips is going to accomplish a rare feat this season that should mitigate any concerns about his durability. Because of the timing of the bye weeks, Phillips is going to play 18 regular-season games.

Sweat landed the top contract in 2025 free agency for an edge rusher. He signed a four-year, $76.4 million deal with $41 million in guarantees, including $38 million fully guaranteed at signing. It will be interesting to see whether this year’s edge rusher market explosion positively impacts the pass rushers available in 2026.

player headshot

  • Financial benchmark: Kristian Fulton — two years, $10 million per year, $15 million guaranteed
  • Probability: $$

The Bears had no idea Nahshon Wright would play such a prominent role on their defense when he was quickly signed to a one-year contract at his $1.1 million league-minimum salary after the Minnesota Vikings released him in April from the same contract. He spent the 2024 season on Minnesota’s practice squad after being acquired during that preseason from the Cowboys for cornerback Andrew Booth Jr.

Wright has taken advantage of multiple injuries at cornerback to have a breakout season. Wright, who was named NFC Defensive Player of the Month for November, is tied for second in the NFL with five interceptions. He also has two forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries. Wright’s eight takeaways are the most in the NFL.

Wright would like to remain in Chicago. The Bears already have significant financial commitments at cornerback, though. Jaylon Johnson is in the second year of the four-year, $76 million deal averaging $19 million per year he signed in 2024. Kyler Gordon signed a three-year, $40 million extension averaging $13,333,333 per year in April.

On the open market, Wright will need other teams to view this season as a sign of things to come rather than an outlier. Prior to this season, the 2021 third-round pick had primarily been a special teams player who had been on the field for only 269 defensive snaps throughout his NFL career.



Fonte

Related Articles

Оставите одговор

Ваша адреса е-поште неће бити објављена. Неопходна поља су означена *

Back to top button